New Delhi: India could attract 80 to 85 billion US dollars under the Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap facility scheme aimed at encouraging foreign currency inflows, according to a report released on Monday.
As of 17 July, Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), deposits accounted for $17.406 billion of the total inflows under the scheme. Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) contributed $1.97 billion, while External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) amounted to $1.342 billion.
Ecowrap, an SBI research report, described the RBI's inflows of around 20 billion US dollars until 17 July as a "positive reprieve", driven primarily by a strong FCNR(B) corpus of $17.4 billion.
"Overall, we believe FCNR(B) deposits in the range of 65 to 70 billion US dollars should be received under the scheme, and including OFCBs and ECBs, total inflows could reach 80 to 85 billion US dollars," the report said.
It added that RBI data showed FCNR(B) deposits worth $17.4 billion had been mobilised by 17 July, with public sector banks emerging as the primary drivers of the mobilisation.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced the swap facility on 5 June 2026 as part of a series of measures to strengthen India's balance of payments and incentivise capital inflows.
The facility became operational on 8 June 2026 and will remain available until 30 September 2026 for FCNR(B) deposits and until 31 December 2026 for OFCBs and ECBs.
The measures were announced to strengthen India's external sector position and support foreign exchange liquidity amid global market uncertainties.
According to the SBI report, although the Indian rupee initially responded positively to the RBI's announcements, the optimism faded as hopes of an amicable resolution between the United States and Iran diminished, energy prices remained volatile, and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned cautious despite healthy debt inflows and relatively stable equity flows during June.
The report projected that the RBI measures would add 75 to 85 billion US dollars to the capital account in the 2026–27 financial year, while inward remittances are expected to exceed $150 billion.
It also forecast strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows of 15 to 18 billion US dollars during FY27, along with improved foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows in the second half of the financial year.
"Thus, the overall balance of payments would be in surplus of more than 50 billion US dollars for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of a 65 to 70 billion US dollar deficit," the SBI report said.
The report further projected that India's current account deficit would remain in the range of 1 to 1.2 per cent of GDP during 2026–27.
